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Part C - Economic Structure and Performance
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Chapter Cb - Business Fluctuations and Cycles
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Table Group Cb9-34 - Business Cycle Indicators
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Richard Sutch
Table Cb18-22 - Real gross domestic product-trends and fluctuations: 1952-2001 [Okun-Phillips decomposition]
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Cb18
Cb19
Cb20
Cb21
Cb22
Unemployment rate
Rate of inflation
Okun-Phillips decomposition of real GDP
Nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU)
Noninflationary potential real GDP
Deviation from potential real GDP
Row
Year
Quarter
Percent
Percent
Percent
Billion chained 1996 dollars
Billion chained 1996 dollars
1
1952
2
3.0
1.07
4.55
1,742.6
123.6
2
1952
3
3.2
2.30
4.61
1,769.3
108.7
3
1952
4
2.8
1.43
4.56
1,796.4
143.8
4
1953
1
2.7
1.70
4.41
1,823.9
152.1
5
1953
2
2.6
1.69
4.20
1,851.8
140.4
6
1953
3
2.7
0.89
3.97
1,880.1
99.4
7
1953
4
3.7
0.89
3.76
1,908.9
38.9
8
1954
1
5.2
1.20
3.67
1
1,938.1
0.0
9
1954
2
5.8
1.09
3.63
1,967.8
-26.8
10
1954
3
6.0
0.88
3.78
1,997.9
-35.9
11
1954
4
5.4
0.88
4.00
2,028.4
-27.5
12
1955
1
4.7
0.98
4.20
2,059.5
-1.4
13
1955
2
4.4
1.34
4.38
2
2,091.0
0.0
14
1955
3
4.1
1.90
4.47
2,093.4
25.5
15
1955
4
4.2
2.67
4.56
2,095.8
34.3
16
1956
1
4.0
3.22
4.65
2,098.2
22.8
17
1956
2
4.2
3.36
4.76
2,100.6
37.1
18
1956
3
4.1
3.88
4.89
2,103.0
32.3
19
1956
4
4.1
3.25
4.99
2,105.4
65.0
20
1957
1
4.0
3.66
5.08
2,107.8
74.9
21
1957
2
4.1
3.79
5.14
2,110.2
67.5
22
1957
3
4.2
3.11
5.18
2,112.6
86.3
23
1957
4
4.9
2.71
5.22
2,115.0
61.0
24
1958
1
6.3
2.43
5.25
1
2,117.4
0.0
25
1958
2
7.4
2.13
5.28
2,155.3
-25.6
26
1958
3
7.3
2.21
5.30
2,193.8
-16.3
27
1958
4
6.4
2.78
5.32
2,233.1
-6.6
28
1959
1
5.8
1.68
5.33
2
2,273.0
0.0
29
1959
2
5.1
1.30
5.37
2,294.8
37.6
30
1959
3
5.3
0.83
5.42
2,316.9
14.5
31
1959
4
5.6
0.73
5.48
1
,
2
2,339.1
0.0
32
1960
1
5.2
1.15
5.56
2,342.5
48.5
33
1960
2
5.2
1.47
5.63
2,346.0
33.2
34
1960
3
5.6
1.60
5.70
2,349.4
34.2
35
1960
4
6.3
1.46
5.78
1
2,352.9
0.0
36
1961
1
6.8
1.22
5.84
2,388.9
-22.4
37
1961
2
7.0
1.13
5.84
2,425.5
-14.7
38
1961
3
6.8
1.03
5.81
2,462.7
-12.3
39
1961
4
6.2
1.03
5.74
2
2,500.4
0.0
40
1962
1
5.6
1.43
5.67
2,526.6
17.4
41
1962
2
5.5
1.38
5.65
2,553.0
18.5
42
1962
3
5.6
1.34
5.61
2,579.8
17.0
43
1962
4
5.5
1.33
5.58
2,606.8
-3.5
44
1963
1
5.8
1.06
5.52
1
2,634.1
0.0
45
1963
2
5.7
1.01
5.44
2,674.7
-6.3
46
1963
3
5.5
0.97
5.38
2,716.0
3.6
47
1963
4
5.6
1.45
5.34
2,757.9
-18.5
48
1964
1
5.5
1.35
5.30
2
2,800.5
0.0
49
1964
2
5.2
1.48
5.23
2,827.8
6.0
50
1964
3
5.0
1.70
5.14
2,855.4
16.6
51
1964
4
5.0
1.42
5.02
2,883.3
-3.8
52
1965
1
4.9
1.68
4.90
2,911.5
38.6
53
1965
2
4.7
1.85
4.81
2,939.9
50.0
54
1965
3
4.4
1.88
4.74
2,968.6
82.1
55
1965
4
4.1
2.04
4.69
2,997.6
126.0
56
1966
1
3.9
2.20
4.62
3,026.8
174.3
57
1966
2
3.8
2.57
4.55
3,056.4
156.8
58
1966
3
3.8
3.23
4.46
3,086.2
147.4
59
1966
4
3.7
3.42
4.39
3,116.3
145.5
60
1967
1
3.8
3.15
4.35
3,146.8
145.0
61
1967
2
3.8
3.00
4.33
3,177.5
112.2
62
1967
3
3.8
2.97
4.34
3,208.5
105.0
63
1967
4
3.9
3.23
4.35
3,239.8
98.5
64
1968
1
3.7
3.98
4.37
3,271.4
134.8
65
1968
2
3.5
4.35
4.38
3,303.4
161.4
66
1968
3
3.5
4.27
4.41
3,335.6
153.6
67
1968
4
3.4
4.57
4.43
3,368.2
135.9
68
1969
1
3.4
4.44
4.48
3,401.1
157.2
69
1969
2
3.4
4.78
4.54
3,434.3
133.3
70
1969
3
3.6
5.31
4.62
3,467.8
120.5
71
1969
4
3.6
5.19
4.70
3,501.6
69.8
72
1970
1
4.2
5.62
4.79
3,535.8
30.7
73
1970
2
4.8
5.66
4.88
3,570.3
3.6
74
1970
3
5.2
5.00
4.96
1
3,605.2
0.0
75
1970
4
5.8
5.01
5.04
3,643.7
-77.2
76
1971
1
5.9
5.08
5.09
3,682.7
-16.6
77
1971
2
5.9
5.04
5.13
3,722.1
-35.9
78
1971
3
6.0
5.24
5.19
3,761.9
-47.4
79
1971
4
6.0
4.74
5.29
3,802.1
-78.3
80
1972
1
5.8
4.70
5.41
3,842.7
-45.8
81
1972
2
5.7
3.98
5.55
2
3,883.8
Z
82
1972
3
5.6
3.94
5.68
3,895.1
27.2
83
1972
4
5.3
4.39
5.83
3,906.4
84.1
84
1973
1
5.0
4.14
5.99
3,917.8
174.5
85
1973
2
4.9
5.19
6.16
3,929.2
204.1
86
1973
3
4.8
6.08
6.32
3,940.7
176.3
87
1973
4
4.8
6.99
6.43
3,952.1
199.0
88
1974
1
5.1
7.61
6.51
3,963.6
155.7
89
1974
2
5.2
8.33
6.56
3,975.2
155.2
90
1974
3
5.6
9.54
6.61
3,986.8
97.7
91
1974
4
6.6
10.47
6.65
3,998.4
63.6
92
1975
1
8.2
11.02
6.69
1
4,010.0
Z
93
1975
2
8.9
10.02
6.71
4,062.8
-17.6
94
1975
3
8.5
8.74
6.74
4,116.3
-0.9
95
1975
4
8.3
7.46
6.75
4,170.5
-3.3
96
1976
1
7.7
6.19
6.73
4,225.5
40.6
97
1976
2
7.6
5.78
6.72
4,281.1
20.4
98
1976
3
7.7
5.38
6.72
4,337.5
-15.6
99
1976
4
7.8
5.41
6.74
4,394.7
-37.3
100
1977
1
7.5
5.95
6.80
4,452.5
-42.0
101
1977
2
7.1
6.61
6.86
4,511.2
-21.4
102
1977
3
6.9
6.42
6.88
2
4,570.6
Z
103
1977
4
6.6
6.68
6.90
4,593.3
-17.2
104
1978
1
6.3
6.57
6.93
4,616.1
-27.2
105
1978
2
6.0
6.89
6.96
4,639.0
126.7
106
1978
3
6.0
7.45
6.98
4,662.0
149.7
107
1978
4
5.9
7.43
7.00
4,685.1
190.9
108
1979
1
5.9
7.87
7.05
4,708.4
179.9
109
1979
2
5.7
8.25
7.10
4,731.7
159.7
110
1979
3
5.9
8.66
7.19
4,755.2
171.0
111
1979
4
5.9
8.69
7.27
4,778.8
163.8
112
1980
1
6.3
9.02
7.34
4,802.5
156.4
113
1980
2
7.3
8.95
7.39
4,826.4
31.4
114
1980
3
7.7
9.07
7.42
1
,
2
4,850.3
0.0
115
1980
4
7.4
9.70
7.43
4,879.3
57.3
116
1981
1
7.4
10.07
7.44
4,908.5
124.0
117
1981
2
7.4
9.62
7.44
4,937.9
59.4
118
1981
3
7.4
9.29
7.45
4,967.4
89.4
119
1981
4
8.2
8.41
7.47
1
4,997.1
0.0
120
1982
1
8.8
7.14
7.48
5,040.6
-126.3
121
1982
2
9.4
6.59
7.50
5,084.4
-148.9
122
1982
3
9.9
6.04
7.52
5,128.7
-216.6
123
1982
4
10.7
5.23
7.56
5,173.3
-257.7
124
1983
1
10.4
4.55
7.62
5,218.3
-245.9
125
1983
2
10.1
4.15
7.65
5,263.7
-173.9
126
1983
3
9.4
3.61
7.67
5,309.5
-129.1
127
1983
4
8.5
3.44
7.64
5,355.7
-68.9
128
1984
1
7.9
3.89
7.59
2
5,402.3
Z
129
1984
2
7.5
3.79
7.57
5,453.7
40.1
130
1984
3
7.4
3.72
7.56
5,505.7
35.6
131
1984
4
7.3
3.54
7.55
5,558.1
25.0
132
1985
1
7.3
3.41
7.54
5,611.0
18.7
133
1985
2
7.3
3.29
7.48
5,664.5
9.3
134
1985
3
7.2
2.96
7.39
5,718.4
40.2
135
1985
4
7.0
2.98
7.26
5,772.8
33.2
136
1986
1
7.0
2.30
7.11
5,827.8
31.1
137
1986
2
7.2
2.11
6.95
1
5,883.3
Z
138
1986
3
7.0
2.25
6.78
5,926.3
11.6
139
1986
4
6.8
2.18
6.61
5,969.7
-0.2
140
1987
1
6.6
2.70
6.46
2
6,013.3
Z
141
1987
2
6.3
2.96
6.35
6,050.2
27.0
142
1987
3
6.0
3.09
6.27
6,087.3
40.8
143
1987
4
5.9
3.22
6.22
6,124.6
109.8
144
1988
1
5.7
2.97
6.20
6,162.2
113.7
145
1988
2
5.5
3.26
6.17
6,200.0
149.8
146
1988
3
5.5
3.69
6.17
6,238.0
144.3
147
1988
4
5.3
3.66
6.18
6,276.3
188.9
148
1989
1
5.2
4.08
6.21
6,314.8
229.0
149
1989
2
5.2
4.04
6.24
6,353.5
225.9
150
1989
3
5.3
3.61
6.25
6,392.5
218.1
151
1989
4
5.4
3.58
6.24
6,431.7
201.8
152
1990
1
5.3
3.63
6.22
6,471.2
245.1
153
1990
2
5.3
3.79
6.21
6,510.9
220.8
154
1990
3
5.7
4.03
6.20
6,550.8
168.6
155
1990
4
6.1
4.15
6.21
6,591.0
73.2
156
1991
1
6.6
4.20
6.21
1
6,631.4
Z
157
1991
2
6.8
3.76
6.21
6,682.7
-14.2
158
1991
3
6.9
3.45
6.19
6,734.4
-49.5
159
1991
4
7.1
3.11
6.17
6,786.5
-65.6
160
1992
1
7.4
2.70
6.18
6,839.0
-55.7
161
1992
2
7.6
2.54
6.19
6,891.9
-45.1
162
1992
3
7.6
2.20
6.21
6,945.2
-45.5
163
1992
4
7.4
2.30
6.22
6,999.0
-8.4
164
1993
1
7.2
2.37
6.23
7,053.1
-64.4
165
1993
2
7.1
2.35
6.21
7,107.7
-76.5
166
1993
3
6.8
2.47
6.20
7,162.7
-100.7
167
1993
4
6.6
2.42
6.19
7,218.1
-49.4
168
1994
1
6.6
2.10
6.16
7,273.9
-44.5
169
1994
2
6.2
2.01
6.12
2
7,330.2
Z
170
1994
3
6.0
2.16
6.06
7,387.7
-17.5
171
1994
4
5.6
2.06
6.00
7,445.6
15.5
172
1995
1
5.5
2.28
5.93
7,504.0
-15.3
173
1995
2
5.7
2.25
5.85
7,562.9
-59.6
174
1995
3
5.7
2.10
5.75
7,622.2
-60.8
175
1995
4
5.6
2.11
5.63
7,681.9
-60.0
176
1996
1
5.5
1.99
5.52
7,742.2
-65.8
177
1996
2
5.5
1.92
5.41
1
,
2
7,802.9
Z
178
1996
3
5.3
1.95
5.31
7,866.8
-24.9
179
1996
4
5.3
1.87
5.21
1
7,931.3
Z
180
1997
1
5.2
1.96
5.11
2
8,016.4
0.0
181
1997
2
5.0
2.09
5.03
8,077.3
54.6
182
1997
3
4.9
1.90
4.92
8,138.7
77.9
183
1997
4
4.7
1.85
4.83
8,200.5
72.4
184
1998
1
4.6
1.40
4.75
8,262.8
133.5
185
1998
2
4.4
1.17
4.69
8,325.6
117.3
186
1998
3
4.5
1.23
4.69
8,388.8
139.7
187
1998
4
4.4
1.13
4.70
8,452.6
215.3
188
1999
1
4.3
1.32
4.71
8,516.8
216.4
189
1999
2
4.3
1.46
4.71
8,581.5
194.0
190
1999
3
4.3
1.40
4.71
8,646.7
240.2
191
1999
4
4.1
1.56
4.70
8,712.4
327.7
192
2000
1
4.0
1.87
4.71
8,778.6
318.8
193
2000
2
4.0
2.08
4.69
8,845.3
360.4
194
2000
3
4.0
2.18
4.67
8,912.5
306.2
195
2000
4
3.9
2.29
4.68
8,980.2
263.6
196
2001
1
4.2
2.43
4.68
9,048.4
181.5
197
2001
2
4.4
2.47
4.69
9,117.1
76.0
198
2001
3
4.8
2.61
4.69
1
9,186.4
0.0
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